May 1, 2025

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WASHINGTON, DC — “The latest GDP report confirms what too many families across the country are already feeling: an increasingly fragile economy where trade policy volatility results in downstream uncertainty. A 0.3% decline in GDP this quarter, following strong growth at the end of 2024, is a sobering reminder that our economy is vulnerable.  

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There’s been a lot of commentary about what this drop in GDP means for the economy. Some are sounding alarms about a potential recession, but the data tells a more nuanced story. GDP is an indicator of the country’s aggregate economic well-being, and this does not always equate to individual economic success.  

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This quarter’s decline wasn’t driven by a slowdown in domestic production—it was largely the result of businesses accelerating foreign purchases ahead of new tariffs, which temporarily distorted the numbers.

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For the communities we serve, these headlines don’t reflect their daily reality. Most families aren’t tracking shifts in trade behavior—they’re worried about whether they can afford a home, qualify for a loan, or keep up with the rising costs of daily necessities. Economic indicators matter, but only when they reflect how people are actually doing.

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While first quarter declines in domestic production aren’t necessarily an indicator of recession, stockpiling of imported products by businesses across all affected sectors are like a canary in a coal mine – a recognition of future increased costs of importing goods and a warning to consumers of price hikes to come. With affordability concerns top of mind for households across the country, this is a stark reminder of a growing pinch on already stressed pocketbooks.  

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A resilient economy isn’t measured solely by GDP; it’s measured by how well it serves all people. We stand ready to work with partners and lawmakers to ensure that the road to recovery is one where everyone can prosper.”

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