“The latest GDP report confirms what too many families across the country are already feeling: an increasingly fragile economy where trade policy volatility results in downstream uncertainty. A 0.3% decline in GDP this quarter, following strong growth at the end of 2024, is a sobering reminder that our economy is vulnerable.
There’s been a lot of commentary about what this drop in GDP means for the economy. Some are sounding alarms about a potential recession, but the data tells a more nuanced story. GDP is an indicator of the country’s aggregate economic well-being, and this does not always equate to individual economic success.
This quarter’s decline wasn’t driven by a slowdown in domestic production—it was largely the result of businesses accelerating foreign purchases ahead of new tariffs, which temporarily distorted the numbers.
For the communities we serve, these headlines don’t reflect their daily reality. Most families aren’t tracking shifts in trade behavior—they’re worried about whether they can afford a home, qualify for a loan, or keep up with the rising costs of daily necessities. Economic indicators matter, but only when they reflect how people are actually doing.
While first quarter declines in domestic production aren’t necessarily an indicator of recession, stockpiling of imported products by businesses across all affected sectors are like a canary in a coal mine – a recognition of future increased costs of importing goods and a warning to consumers of price hikes to come. With affordability concerns top of mind for households across the country, this is a stark reminder of a growing pinch on already stressed pocketbooks.
A resilient economy isn’t measured solely by GDP; it’s measured by how well it serves all people. We stand ready to work with partners and lawmakers to ensure that the road to recovery is one where everyone can prosper.”
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